Week 16 Banker

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Rx. Senior
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Sep 21, 2004
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Detroit Lions +91/2

With the Divisional Title won and no further progress to be made, Carolina are putting the emphasis on getting everybody healthy for the play-offs. With this in mind the following starters will not play, RB Stephen Davies, DE Mike Rucker, DT Brentson Buckner, CB Terry Cousin, C Jeff Mitchell.
S Deon Grant, CB Reggie Howard and LB Dan Morgan are all set to start but for how long is questionable. Dan Morgan is coming back from his second concussion and losing him again would seriously affect their play-off chances.
Detroit will be focused in this game for one thing, getting the 0-23 road loss monkey off their back, which would be a big positive going into next season. Dre Bly’s return will help their secondary while Carolina’s line-up gives Artose Pinner a better chance than normal to show if he is starter material. If McMahon plays his running ability could also help keep drives longer under the circumstances.
On first seeing the spread, I thought 91/2 was too big. With the match-ups Detroit are getting it looks even better. If Detroit establish any sort of running game ( which they are planning to do) play their usual run Defense and Bly keeping tabs on Smith, this game should be low scoring. Along with Jason Hanson’s kicking, it makes the spread a bet. There is a chance Carolina might come out passing, in an attempt to kill the game but I think that would also increase Detroit’s chances.
I have seen a prop Detroit rushing yards +40 over Carolina. This appears to be bang on the average of both teams but if you factor in McMahon getting an extra 20 or so and Detroit saying they are going to emphasise the run against a weakened Defense, maybe the book has slipped up here. Any comments on this or the game as a whole are appreciated.

Best of Luck for the Weekend.
 

Rx. Senior
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Well, one of those lucky wins but they all count. In the off-season I looked at my plays in the preceding 2 years and found that my lucky wins went 60-40% in my favour.
Opon further review(as the refs would say) I found that good winning teams got the majority of the lucky wins, whereas bad or losing teams seemed to get the bad breaks.
Since then I have noticed, bad things happen to bad teams and have tried to incorporate that into my betting. As a rule, I have given these teams 6 pts, in a effort to take them out of a betting proposition.
This does limit your betting opportunities but does save you from the "why did I bet them " syndrome.
All this brings me back to the main principle, if its your money, dont take a chance. If your up money, go for it.
 

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